The official WHO figures and the second wave: Yes, where does it roll?

By Thomas Röper.

The WHO has a very good site on their official homepage, where you can see the official numbers of corona infected and corona victims sorted by country. The results show a lot of interesting details, but no evidence of a second wave.

I invite everyone to have a look at the WHO page itself, you will find links in the written article. I will only show a few selected countries, which are mentioned in the media again and again, and their numbers. Here I show the corresponding screenshots and comment each of them briefly.

Germany: As you can see, you see nothing. The increased number of infected people corresponds to the increased number of tests performed, the positive rate has been below one percent for the last three months according to the RKI.

Spain: Again the same picture, but here something stands out particularly clearly, which we also see on all other graphics: More infected people are reported, but no increase in deaths. But then where is the danger that allegedly emanates from Corona?

USA: Particularly interesting, because although more and more testing is being done there, the absolute number of infected people is actually declining. How does this fit in with the catastrophe reports in the media about the USA? The fact that one sees a higher number of deaths in the USA is due to the fact that the USA has a multiple of the inhabitants of the other countries and therefore in absolute numbers of course more people die. In percentage terms, however, the USA is not above other countries. Concerning the USA and its figures I have already written an article today with the official figures of the CDC, which are also extremely interesting when you analyze them. You can also find the article linked in the written article.

Sweden: Also a very interesting case, because Sweden had imposed practically no restrictions. This explains why the number of infected people had been rising slightly longer than in countries with lockdown or even curfew. But also in Sweden – although there are practically no restrictions – there is no sign of a second wave. The number of infected persons is declining and the number of deaths is also almost impossible to measure when compared with the number of “normal” deaths. In addition, Sweden has had a undermortality rate since July, as this graph from the Swedish Statistics Agency shows.

Russia: Also Russia has practically no more restrictions and the existing mask obligation in the subway is neither controlled nor observed, at least in St. Petersburg, where I live. Every time I ride the subway, I count the masks out of boredom and the number of people wearing masks varies between 20 and 30 percent. A glove obligation exists in the subway as well, but I have only seen two or three people wearing gloves. Nevertheless, we can see that the number of infected people in Russia is decreasing, even though the number of tests is increasing in Russia and Russia is one of the countries that carry out the most tests. The number of deaths in Russia seems high, but if you look at the numbers, the death rate in Russia is only 1.7 percent and the number of deaths is also declining.

It is interesting to note that Russia imposed the lockdown when only 500 people were infected and abolished it when more than 10,000 new positive tests were reported daily. This fits with my theory that the Russian government has long since realized how relatively harmless Corona really is. I have already pointed out several times that the media in Russia also report about Corona in a completely different way than in Germany. The panic-mongering of the German media is completely absent in Russia and these days the beginning of the flu vaccinations for the next flu season already plays a bigger role in the media than Corona.

Since many people are interested, here are a few words about the flu vaccination in Russia: Russia has its own vaccine and a lot of people get vaccinated every year. The vaccination is free of charge, you don’t even have to show your health insurance, just your passport. The vaccination is not only offered in hospitals, but there are mobile vaccination stations everywhere. So there are ambulances in front of subway stations where you are briefly examined and if there are no contraindications, you are vaccinated on the spot. Such stations can also be found in shopping malls and all kinds of other places.

How much and with what result testing is done in different countries

Another interesting page is Our World in Data, where there is a page with detailed information about the tests themselves (you can also find the corresponding link in the written article). A graph shows for example the positive rate of the countries and if you move the mouse over the map, there is detailed information about each country. This applies to each of the cards that can be seen in the font article. And we can see that the positive rate is highest in Spain and Ukraine, but as seen above, according to the WHO, this does not lead to an increase in corona mortality in Spain. Germany – where the media is in panic mode – is one of the countries with the lowest positive rate of all, with a positive rate of 0.9 percent. In the red countries, the positive rate is so high because hardly any testing is done. But if you only test patients in hospitals who come with symptoms, you inevitably have a higher positive rate.

On another picture we see what I have already anticipated. The map shows how many people per thousand inhabitants are tested in the countries and the countries marked in red on the map above have the lowest test rate. The highest test rates are in the USA, Russia, the UK and Australia with two to 2.5 tests per thousand inhabitants. Germany is clearly behind with 1.68 tests. If Germany also gets to two tests per thousand inhabitants, we will read many reports in the media about the number of infected people, even if the positive rate should remain below one percent.

Another interesting feature on the site is the country comparison of the test frequency per thousand inhabitants on the time scale. In this graph I have compared the following countries (list by frequency of tests per thousand inhabitants): USA, Russia, France, Spain, Germany, Sweden and Italy. You can also choose any other country in the world, I have followed the countries mentioned in this article.

So there is a lot of interesting data and who – like me – enjoys playing with numbers will find two very interesting “playgrounds” on the pages of the WHO and Our World in Data. There is only one thing you won’t find on these “playgrounds”: A hint to a second wave or to a relevant mortality at Corona.

Thomas Röper, born in 1971, has held executive and supervisory board positions as an expert for Eastern Europe in financial services companies in Eastern Europe and Russia. Today he lives in his adopted country St. Petersburg. He has lived in Russia for over 15 years and speaks fluent Russian. The focus of his media-critical work is the (media) image of Russia in Germany, criticism of Western media coverage in general and the topics of (geo)politics and economics.




This article first appeared on 02.09.2020 at:


Thanks to the author for the right to publish.


Image source: rzoze19 / shutterstock


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